NFL Betting Systems

Handicapping NFL games and choosing which ones to bet on requires a lot of guesswork. It can be extremely frustrating when you decide not to bet on a team that ends up being a winner, especially when you are on the wrong side of one or more of the games that you actually ended up placing a bet on. With NFL betting now legal in Virginia, many new sports bettors are wondering if there is a better way to handicap or select games, and that’s where NFL betting systems come into play.

The idea of taking the guesswork out of NFL betting and relying on an NFL betting system is tempting. But does it actually work? Is there a surefire NFL betting strategy out there that guarantees a profit? In this guide we will cover what NFL betting systems are and whether or not they are actually a good way to partake in NFL betting in Virginia.

Can you legally bet on NFL games in Virginia?

Yes, residents of Virginia can legally bet on NFL games. The Virginia General Assembly passed legislation in May of 2020 that would pave the way for sports betting to become legal across the state. The Virginia Lottery Board put the regulatory framework for sports betting together ahead of the General Assembly’s deadline of September 15, 2020 to ensure that there would be enough time to review applications for internet-only sports betting platforms for an early 2021 launch.

Legal sports betting on professional sports including the NFL became available to residents of Virginia in January of 2021. You can place NFL wagers in the state of Virginia at any of the following top rated online sportsbooks:

Top NFL betting apps in VA

One of the most convenient ways to bet on NFL games is through betting apps. VA betting apps can be accessed from your phone or tablet to take the betting action with you anywhere you consume sports in Virginia from the couch in your living room to your favorite local sports bar. Here’s a look at three of Virginia’s best NFL betting apps.

DraftKings Sportsbook
  • Up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
  • Up to $50 Free Bet on Deposit
  • Daily Free to Play Pools
FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Up to $1,000 Risk-Free First Bet
  • NFL Parlay Insurance
  • Same-Game Parlays Permitted
BetMGM Sportsbook
  • Up to $1,000 Risk-Free First Bet
  • $10 Free Bets Every Week
  • Earn More on NFL Parlays with “Parlay Plus”

Best NFL betting systems

An NFL betting system is a system in which a set of rules or criteria determine whether or not you should bet on a game. Examples of popular NFL betting systems include:

Betting against the public 

There are many NFL betting systems that revolve around betting against the public. One popular variation is the “80-20 system” in which sharp bettors take home underdogs that have received 20% or less of the betting public’s action. The logic behind these bets is that if oddsmakers are allowing the betting public to take significant action on one side and aren’t moving the line to try to generate action on the other side, chances are the sportsbooks like the less popular side. And it’s rarely a bad idea to be on the same side as the house.

Non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams early season

Once again going against public perception, this system covers the first three weeks of the season and suggests bettors take teams that missed the NFL playoffs last season against teams that made the playoffs. Due to the fact that it’s a brand new season and bettors don’t have much data yet, most casual bettors will be over betting on the teams that had success last year, offering value on the teams that didn’t.

Hedging your bets

Hedge bets are strategic wagers against your previous position. Say, for example, that you bet the Kansas City Chiefs at -3 early in the week and they are up to -6.5 on Sunday morning. Betting on the opposing team at +6.5 will give you the chance to “middle” your wager, or win both bets if the Chiefs win by exactly four, five, or six points. Some bettors also hedge out of the final leg of a parlay bet to lock in a profit if all of the previous legs have already won.

Halftime strategies

A handful of betting systems include taking advantage of the halftime lines on NFL games. One such system suggests betting on teams that have leads of 14 or more points at the half. While many bettors take the trailing team in anticipation that they will come back, historical data shows that the team winning big is more likely to increase its lead in the second half than to lose it.

Wong teasers

“Wong Teasers” are named after Stanford Wong, who created this system. Wong suggests teasing home favorites of 7.5, 8, 8.5, or 9 points down and underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2, or 2.5 points up together using six-point teasers. The logic here is that many NFL games end by point margins of three, four, six, and seven due to the way the game is scored; these teasers cover all of these key numbers.

Should I trust an NFL betting system?

It’s important to do your due diligence when it comes to determining whether or not you can trust an NFL betting system. Fortunately, in most cases, you can go back and verify records and performances of difference systems yourself by combing through the data on closing betting lines. It may seem tedious and time-consuming to fact check all of the betting systems you are interested in, but it’s worth the effort to make sure that you aren’t betting your hard-earned dollars on something that isn’t being represented accurately.

Should I use an NFL betting system?

Only you can decide whether an NFL betting system is right for you. Here are few pros and cons to consider:

Pro: automating the handicapping process

Unless you love statistics and injury reports, going through the handicapping process on every game on the NFL schedule can be a long and arduous task. Having an NFL sports betting strategy in place makes the process a whole lot easier as you are only looking at a very specific set of criteria when making your selections.

Pro: you can choose an NFL betting system you believe in

With so many different betting systems to choose from, you can find one that makes sense to you and matches your mindset. Having faith in a system can make the sports betting experience a lot more fun, especially when that system is winning.

Con: committing to a higher volume

On weeks that your system has many games that meet the criteria to be plays, you may wind up in a spot that you have to bet more money than you are comfortable with or less money on each individual game than you would prefer to. Conversely, weeks that have very few games that meet your system’s criteria may feel disappointing or boring.

Con: sometimes you’ll go against your gut

On the other hand, sometimes your system will churn out a pick that you disagree with. What do you do in these instances? Bettors who like going with their gut on certain plays will have to decide how to approach situations when their gut and their system aren’t on the same page.

NFL betting system vs. own research/analysis

Whether or not an NFL betting system is better than researching and handicapping games on your own boils down to how reliable the system is and how good or bad you are at handicapping. And unfortunately, being able to reliably evaluate these factors based on wins and losses is very difficult over a small sample size. A bad handicapper or system can get lucky for a week, month, or even a full season; and similarly, a winning system or handicapper can go through a rough patch.

The key to this question is honestly assessing your own handicapping skills. Many casual NFL bettors always blame bad luck for their losses instead of taking responsibility for their mistakes. Keeping records of your wins and losses and diving deeper into statistics like how often you bet games at a better line than they closed at will give you an accurate idea of how strong your handicapping is. From there, you can measure your success or lack thereof against the success of betting systems.

Do most NFL betting systems fail? Do any of them work?

Most NFL betting systems do fail in the long run. The reason for this is simple: sportsbooks make adjustments based on how they are performing.

For example, say that a betting system targeting west coast teams traveling cross-country to play against east coast teams was generating massive profits for bettors betting on the east coast teams at home. This profitable NFL betting system would start to become common knowledge through social media, message boards, sports radio, and word of mouth. And in turn more and more sports bettors would start to take advantage of it.

Eventually, sportsbooks would react to this shift by creating tougher lines. They would factor in the travel and the public interest in this betting system into the betting lines, setting a team they projected as a three-point favorite at home as a six-point or seven-point favorite instead. This would diminish the value of the system, as bettors have seen in recent years as home underdogs have become far less profitable than they used to be.

Are NFL betting systems a scam?

Many NFL betting systems are not scams. Bettors are always trying to come up with new and reliable ways to beat the sportsbooks, and methods that work get published and shared. There are plenty of honest NFL betting systems out there that have varying degrees of success.

NFL bettors in Virginia should be wary of websites or services that make ridiculous claims about their betting systems. Insane win rates of over 90% or “guaranteed winners” are often signs of scammers trying to sell you on a system that isn’t real. Follow the rule of thumb that if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.

Are NFL betting system useful for casual bettors?

NFL betting is supposed to be fun. Very few people are able to bet on sports professionally, and those who do often have complex computer models or betting syndicates that they don’t make accessible to the betting public. The goal is always to win, but generally speaking, most casual bettors will at best just win a few hundred or thousand dollars over the course of a season as opposed to life-changing money.

So the key to deciding whether an NFL betting system is worth it to try comes down to how you want to spend your gambling money. If you love handicapping and trying to solve the puzzle of each individual game, a betting system probably isn’t right for you. But if you just want a side to root for that doesn’t require a lot of thought but is more reliable than picking at random, trying out an NFL betting system makes a lot of sense.

Are there any systems for betting NFL futures?

Betting systems in the NFL tend to lean more towards week-to-week action as opposed to futures. When it comes to betting on NFL futures, the best thing you can do is shop around at as many Virginia sportsbooks as you can before making a wager. The betting odds on NFL futures are already stacked against the player, so make sure you at least take the time to get the best odds available to you on the team that you are interested in backing.

Should I pay for an NFL betting system?

Some NFL betting systems require you to pay money to access them. One common example of this is systems based on how the betting public is wagering on a game. Some websites offer you in-depth analysis on what side of each game that average bettors are betting on, what side big-money bettors are betting on, and more.

Do extensive research before paying for an NFL betting system. If you include a service into your sports betting budget and think there is value in that service, there is nothing wrong with paying for a betting system. But be sure to avoid scam sites that make false promises about their records and performances.

Whether you pay for it or not, when it comes to using NFL betting systems, have realistic expectations. Even the best systems are only going to win slightly above average, and the rare ones doing much better than that will eventually lose their luster after sportsbooks adjust to them. NFL betting systems can be part of a solid NFL betting strategy as long as you bet within your means and enjoy the betting system you choose to follow.